1月30日，中國電力企業聯合(he)會(hui)召開新(xin)聞(wen)發(fa)布會(hui)，中電聯新(xin)聞(wen)發(fa)言人、秘書長郝英杰(jie)發(fa)布《2023-2024年(nian)度全國電力供需形勢(shi)分析預(yu)測報告》。

　　報告指出，2023年，全國(guo)全社會用(yong)電量9.22萬億千瓦時，人均用(yong)電量6539千瓦時；全社會用(yong)電量同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長6.7%，增(zeng)速比(bi)(bi)2022年提高(gao)3.1個百(bai)分點，國(guo)民經濟(ji)回升向(xiang)好拉動電力消費增(zeng)速同(tong)比(bi)(bi)提高(gao)。

　　電(dian)力生產供應(ying)方面，截至(zhi)(zhi)2023年(nian)(nian)底，全(quan)國全(quan)口(kou)徑發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)29.2億千(qian)瓦，同比增(zeng)長13.9%；人(ren)(ren)均(jun)發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)自(zi)2014年(nian)(nian)底歷史性突(tu)破1千(qian)瓦/人(ren)(ren)后，在2023年(nian)(nian)首次(ci)(ci)歷史性突(tu)破2千(qian)瓦/人(ren)(ren)，達到2.1千(qian)瓦/人(ren)(ren)。非化(hua)石能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)在2023年(nian)(nian)首次(ci)(ci)超(chao)過火(huo)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模，占總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)比重(zhong)在2023年(nian)(nian)首次(ci)(ci)超(chao)過50%，煤電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)占比首次(ci)(ci)降至(zhi)(zhi)40%以下。

　　報(bao)告預測，到(dao)2024年(nian)底(di)(di)，全國發(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)預計達到(dao)32.5億千瓦(wa)，同比增(zeng)長12%左(zuo)右，2024年(nian)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)發(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)將(jiang)再次(ci)突破3億千瓦(wa)，其中，新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)將(jiang)再次(ci)超(chao)過2億千瓦(wa)。在新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)電持續快速(su)發(fa)展的帶(dai)動下(xia)，預計到(dao)2024年(nian)底(di)(di)，我國新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)電累(lei)計裝(zhuang)機(ji)規模(mo)將(jiang)達到(dao)13億千瓦(wa)左(zuo)右，占總裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)比重上(shang)升至40%左(zuo)右，首次(ci)超(chao)過煤(mei)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)規模(mo)。

　　綜(zong)合(he)考慮宏觀(guan)經濟、用能(neng)電氣化等(deng)因(yin)素，預計(ji)(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)全社(she)會用電量9.8萬億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦時，比(bi)2023年(nian)(nian)增長6%左右。預計(ji)(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)全國統調最高用電負(fu)荷14.5億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦，比(bi)2023年(nian)(nian)增加1億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦左右。

　　人(ren)民日報(bao)、新華社、央視總(zong)臺等20多家媒體參加本次發布會。

　　報告全文如下：

　　2023-2024年度全國電力供需(xu)形勢分析(xi)預測報(bao)告

　　2023年(nian)，電(dian)力(li)行業以習(xi)近(jin)平新時代中(zhong)國特色社會主義思想為指導，認真貫徹習(xi)近(jin)平總書記(ji)關于能源(yuan)電(dian)力(li)的重要(yao)講話和重要(yao)指示批示精神(shen)，以及(ji)“四(si)個(ge)革命(ming)、一個(ge)合作”能源(yuan)安(an)(an)全新戰略，落實黨(dang)中(zhong)央、國務院(yuan)決(jue)策部署，弘揚電(dian)力(li)精神(shen)，經(jing)受住(zhu)了上半年(nian)來(lai)水持(chi)續(xu)偏枯(ku)、夏(xia)季多輪高溫、冬季大(da)范圍極端嚴寒等考驗，為經(jing)濟(ji)社會發展和人民美(mei)好生(sheng)活提供了堅強(qiang)電(dian)力(li)保(bao)障。電(dian)力(li)供應(ying)安(an)(an)全穩定，電(dian)力(li)消費穩中(zhong)向好，電(dian)力(li)供需總體平衡，電(dian)力(li)綠色低碳轉型持(chi)續(xu)推進。

　　一、2023年全國電力供需(xu)情況

　　(一)電(dian)力消費(fei)需求情況

　　2023年，全國全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量(liang)9.22萬億千瓦(wa)時(shi)，人(ren)均(jun)用(yong)電量(liang)6539千瓦(wa)時(shi)；全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)6.7%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)比2022年提(ti)高(gao)3.1個百(bai)分點，國民經濟回升(sheng)(sheng)向(xiang)好(hao)拉動電力消費增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)同(tong)比提(ti)高(gao)。各季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)比分別增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.6%、6.4%、6.6%和10.0%，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)逐季(ji)(ji)(ji)上升(sheng)(sheng)；受2022年同(tong)期(qi)低(di)基數以及經濟回升(sheng)(sheng)等因(yin)素(su)影響，四(si)季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)明顯(xian)提(ti)高(gao)，四(si)季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)的(de)兩年平均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為6.8%，與三季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)的(de)兩年平均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)接近。

　　一是第(di)一產(chan)(chan)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量延(yan)續快(kuai)速增(zeng)(zeng)長勢頭。2023年，第(di)一產(chan)(chan)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量1278億千瓦時，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長11.5%；各季度同比分別增(zeng)(zeng)長9.7%、14.2%、10.2%和12.2%。近年來電(dian)(dian)力企業積極助力鄉(xiang)(xiang)村振興，大(da)力實施(shi)農網鞏固提升(sheng)工程，完善(shan)鄉(xiang)(xiang)村電(dian)(dian)力基(ji)礎設(she)施(shi)，推動農業生產(chan)(chan)、鄉(xiang)(xiang)村產(chan)(chan)業電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)改造，拉動第(di)一產(chan)(chan)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)保持快(kuai)速增(zeng)(zeng)長。分行業看，農業、漁業、畜牧業全年用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量同比分別增(zeng)(zeng)長7.8%、9.2%、18.3%。

　　二是(shi)第二產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)逐(zhu)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)上(shang)升。2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)，第二產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)6.07萬億千瓦時，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)6.5%；各(ge)(ge)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)4.2%、4.7%、7.3%和(he)(he)9.4%。2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)7.4%，分大類看(kan)，四大高載能行業(ye)(ye)(ye)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)5.3%，各(ge)(ge)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)4.2%、0.9%、7.2%和(he)(he)8.7%，三(san)、四季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)以(yi)及兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)有較為(wei)明(ming)顯的(de)(de)回升。高技術及裝(zhuang)備制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)11.3%，超(chao)過制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)整(zheng)體增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)水平(ping)(ping)3.9個(ge)百分點(dian)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)領(ling)先；各(ge)(ge)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)4.0%、11.7%、13.3%和(he)(he)14.8%。其(qi)(qi)中，電(dian)(dian)氣機械和(he)(he)器材制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)領(ling)先，各(ge)(ge)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)及兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)超(chao)過20%。消費品制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)7.0%，季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)從一(yi)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)下(xia)降1.7%轉為(wei)二季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)7.1%，三(san)、四季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)分別(bie)進一(yi)步上(shang)升至8.4%、13.1%，各(ge)(ge)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)也呈(cheng)逐(zhu)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)上(shang)升態勢，在一(yi)定程度(du)(du)上(shang)反映(ying)出(chu)2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)我國終(zhong)端消費品市場呈(cheng)逐(zhu)步回暖態勢。其(qi)(qi)他制造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)10.4%，各(ge)(ge)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)5.2%、10.7%、12.7%和(he)(he)12.2%；其(qi)(qi)中，石油/煤炭及其(qi)(qi)他燃料加工業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)領(ling)先，該行業(ye)(ye)(ye)各(ge)(ge)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)及兩(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)超(chao)過10%。

　　三(san)是(shi)第三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用電(dian)量(liang)恢復快(kuai)速(su)增長(chang)勢(shi)頭。2023年(nian)，第三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用電(dian)量(liang)1.67萬億千瓦時，同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)12.2%。各季(ji)度同比(bi)(bi)分別增長(chang)4.1%、15.9%、10.5%和(he)(he)(he)19.1%；各季(ji)度的兩年(nian)平(ping)均增速(su)分別為(wei)5.3%、7.9%、9.3%和(he)(he)(he)11.1%，逐季(ji)上升，反映出隨著新冠疫情防控(kong)轉段，服務業(ye)(ye)(ye)經濟運行(xing)呈穩步恢復態勢(shi)。批發和(he)(he)(he)零售(shou)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、住宿和(he)(he)(he)餐(can)飲業(ye)(ye)(ye)、租賃(lin)和(he)(he)(he)商務服務業(ye)(ye)(ye)、交通運輸/倉(cang)儲和(he)(he)(he)郵(you)政(zheng)業(ye)(ye)(ye)全(quan)年(nian)用電(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)(bi)增速(su)處于(yu)14%～18%，這四(si)個行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)在2022年(nian)部分時段受疫情沖擊大，疫情后(hou)恢復態勢(shi)明顯。電(dian)動(dong)汽車高速(su)發展拉動(dong)充換(huan)電(dian)服務業(ye)(ye)(ye)2023年(nian)用電(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)78.1%。

　　四(si)是城(cheng)鄉(xiang)居民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)量低速增(zeng)長(chang)。2023年，城(cheng)鄉(xiang)居民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)量1.35萬億千瓦時，同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)0.9%，上年高基數是2023年居民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)量低速增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)重要原因。各季度的(de)同比(bi)增(zeng)速分別(bie)為0.2%、2.6%、-0.5%、2.3%，各季度的(de)兩年平均增(zeng)速分別(bie)為5.9%、5.0%、9.4%和(he)8.7%。

　　五是全(quan)國31個(ge)省份(fen)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)均為正(zheng)增長，西(xi)部地區用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增速領先。2023年(nian)，東(dong)、中、西(xi)部和東(dong)北(bei)地區全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)分別增長6.9%、4.3%、8.1%和5.1%。分省份(fen)看，2023年(nian)全(quan)國31個(ge)省份(fen)全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)均為正(zheng)增長，其(qi)中，海(hai)南(nan)、西(xi)藏、內蒙古、寧夏、廣(guang)西(xi)、青海(hai)6個(ge)省份(fen)同比(bi)增速超過10%。

　　(二)電力生(sheng)產供應情(qing)況

　　截至(zhi)2023年底，全(quan)國全(quan)口徑發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)29.2億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同比增長(chang)13.9%；人均發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)自2014年底歷(li)史(shi)性突破1千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)/人后，在(zai)(zai)2023年首(shou)次歷(li)史(shi)性突破2千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)/人，達到2.1千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)/人。非化(hua)石能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)在(zai)(zai)2023年首(shou)次超過火電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)規模，占總(zong)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)比重在(zai)(zai)2023年首(shou)次超過50%，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)占比首(shou)次降至(zhi)40%以下。從分類型投資、發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)增速及結構變化(hua)等情況看，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業綠色低(di)碳轉型趨勢持續(xu)推(tui)進。

　　一(yi)是電(dian)(dian)力投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)快(kuai)速增長(chang)(chang)(chang)，非(fei)化石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)占(zhan)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)達到九成。2023年，重(zhong)點調查企(qi)業(ye)電(dian)(dian)力完成投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)20.2%。分類型看(kan)，電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)完成投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)30.1%，其中(zhong)非(fei)化石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)31.5%，占(zhan)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)的(de)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)達到89.2%。太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)、火電(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同比(bi)(bi)分別增長(chang)(chang)(chang)38.7%、27.5%、20.8%、15.0%和13.7%。電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)工程(cheng)建(jian)設(she)完成投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)5.4%。電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)企(qi)業(ye)進一(yi)步(bu)加強農網(wang)(wang)(wang)鞏固提升及配網(wang)(wang)(wang)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)建(jian)設(she)，110千伏及以(yi)下等(deng)級電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)占(zhan)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)工程(cheng)完成投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)總額的(de)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)達到55.0%。

　　二是(shi)新(xin)增并(bing)(bing)(bing)網(wang)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)超過2億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，并(bing)(bing)(bing)網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)突(tu)破(po)10億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)，全國(guo)新(xin)增發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)3.7億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比多(duo)投產(chan)1.7億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)；其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)，新(xin)增并(bing)(bing)(bing)網(wang)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)2.2億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比多(duo)投產(chan)1.3億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)新(xin)增發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)總容(rong)量(liang)的比重達到58.5%。截至2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)底，全國(guo)全口徑發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)29.2億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)，非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)15.7億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)比重在2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)首次突(tu)破(po)50%，達到53.9%。分(fen)類型看，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)4.2億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)抽水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)5094萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)；核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)5691萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)；并(bing)(bing)(bing)網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)4.4億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)，陸(lu)上風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)4.0億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、海上風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)3729萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)；并(bing)(bing)(bing)網(wang)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)6.1億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。全國(guo)并(bing)(bing)(bing)網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)合計裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)從(cong)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)底的7.6億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，連(lian)續(xu)突(tu)破(po)8億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、9億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、10億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)大(da)關，2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)底達到10.5億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比增長(chang)38.6%，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)比重為(wei)36.0%，同比提高6.4個百(bai)分(fen)點。火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)13.9億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)11.6億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比增長(chang)3.4%，占(zhan)總發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)的比重為(wei)39.9%，首次降(jiang)至40%以下，同比降(jiang)低4.0個百(bai)分(fen)點。

　　三是水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)，煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量占比(bi)(bi)仍接近(jin)六成，充分發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)揮(hui)兜底(di)保(bao)供(gong)作用(yong)。2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國規(gui)模(mo)以上(shang)(shang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)(chang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量8.91萬億千瓦時，同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)5.2%。全(quan)(quan)國規(gui)模(mo)以上(shang)(shang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)(chang)中(zhong)的(de)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)5.6%。年(nian)(nian)(nian)初主要水(shui)庫蓄水(shui)不足以及上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)(nian)(nian)降(jiang)水(shui)持續偏(pian)少(shao)，導(dao)致上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)(nian)(nian)規(gui)模(mo)以上(shang)(shang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)(chang)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量同比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)22.9%；下(xia)(xia)半年(nian)(nian)(nian)降(jiang)水(shui)形勢好轉以及上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同期基(ji)數低，8-12月水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量轉為同比(bi)(bi)正(zheng)增長(chang)。2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國規(gui)模(mo)以上(shang)(shang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)(chang)中(zhong)的(de)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量同比(bi)(bi)分別增長(chang)6.1%和(he)3.7%。2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量占總發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量比(bi)(bi)重接近(jin)六成，煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)仍是當前我國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應的(de)主力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源，有(you)效彌補了水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)出力(li)的(de)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)。

　　四(si)是火(huo)電(dian)、核電(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)設備(bei)利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)均同(tong)(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高。2023年，全國6000千(qian)瓦及以上電(dian)廠發(fa)電(dian)設備(bei)利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)3592小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)低101小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。分類型看，水(shui)(shui)電(dian)3133小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)低285小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，其中，常規水(shui)(shui)電(dian)3423小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)低278小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)；抽水(shui)(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)1175小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)低6小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。火(huo)電(dian)4466小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高76小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)；其中，煤電(dian)4685小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高92小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。核電(dian)7670小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高54小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。并(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)2225小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)高7小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。并(bing)網(wang)太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)1286小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)低54小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。

　　五是跨(kua)區(qu)、跨(kua)省輸送(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)較快增長(chang)。2023年(nian)，全國新(xin)(xin)增220千(qian)伏(fu)及以上輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)線路長(chang)度3.81萬(wan)千(qian)米(mi)，同(tong)比(bi)少投產557千(qian)米(mi)；新(xin)(xin)增220千(qian)伏(fu)及以上變(bian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備容量(liang)(liang)(liang)(交流(liu)(liu)(liu))2.57億(yi)千(qian)伏(fu)安(an)(an)，同(tong)比(bi)少投產354萬(wan)千(qian)伏(fu)安(an)(an)；新(xin)(xin)增直流(liu)(liu)(liu)換流(liu)(liu)(liu)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)1600萬(wan)千(qian)瓦。2023年(nian)，全國完成跨(kua)區(qu)輸送(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)8497億(yi)千(qian)瓦時，同(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)9.7%；其(qi)中，西(xi)北區(qu)域外送(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)3097億(yi)千(qian)瓦時，占跨(kua)區(qu)輸送(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的36.5%。2023年(nian)，全國跨(kua)省輸送(song)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)1.85萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)瓦時，同(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)7.2%。

　　六(liu)是市(shi)場(chang)交易(yi)電(dian)(dian)量較快(kuai)增長(chang)(chang)。2023年(nian)，全國各電(dian)(dian)力交易(yi)中心(xin)累計(ji)組織完(wan)成市(shi)場(chang)交易(yi)電(dian)(dian)量5.67萬億千(qian)瓦時(shi)，同比(bi)增長(chang)(chang)7.9%，占全社會用電(dian)(dian)量比(bi)重(zhong)為61.4%，同比(bi)提高0.6個百分點。其中全國電(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場(chang)中長(chang)(chang)期(qi)電(dian)(dian)力直接交易(yi)電(dian)(dian)量4.43萬億千(qian)瓦時(shi)，同比(bi)增長(chang)(chang)7%。

　　(三)全國電力供需情況

　　2023年(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統安全(quan)穩定運行(xing)，全(quan)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)總體(ti)平衡，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力保供(gong)取得好(hao)成效。年(nian)初，受(shou)來水偏枯(ku)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)供(gong)應緊張(zhang)、用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)負荷增長(chang)等因素疊加影響，云(yun)南(nan)、貴州、蒙西(xi)等少數省(sheng)級(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網在部分(fen)時段電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)形勢(shi)(shi)較為緊張(zhang)，通(tong)過(guo)源網荷儲協同發(fa)力，守牢(lao)了民生用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)安全(quan)底線。夏季，各相關政(zheng)府部門及電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力企業(ye)提前(qian)做好(hao)了充分(fen)準備，迎峰度(du)(du)夏期間全(quan)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)形勢(shi)(shi)總體(ti)平衡，各省(sheng)級(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網均(jun)未采取有序用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)措(cuo)施，創造了近(jin)年(nian)來迎峰度(du)(du)夏電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力保供(gong)最好(hao)成效。冬季，12月多地出現大范圍(wei)強寒潮、強雨雪天氣(qi)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業(ye)企業(ye)全(quan)力應對雨雪冰凍，全(quan)國近(jin)十個省(sheng)級(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)形勢(shi)(shi)偏緊，部分(fen)省(sheng)級(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網通(tong)過(guo)需(xu)求側(ce)響應等措(cuo)施，保障了電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統安全(quan)穩定運行(xing)。

　　二、2024年全國電力供(gong)需(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)預(yu)測

　　(一)電力(li)消費預測

　　預計2024年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國電力消費(fei)平穩(wen)增長。綜合考慮宏觀經濟、終端用能電氣化等因素，根據不同預測(ce)方(fang)法對全(quan)社會用電量的預測(ce)結果，預計2024年(nian)(nian)全(quan)年(nian)(nian)全(quan)社會用電量9.8萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，比(bi)2023年(nian)(nian)增長6%左(zuo)右。預計2024年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國統調最高用電負荷14.5億千(qian)瓦(wa)，比(bi)2023年(nian)(nian)增加1億千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右。

　　(二)電力供應預(yu)測

　　預計(ji)2024年(nian)新(xin)投產發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規模(mo)(mo)(mo)將(jiang)(jiang)再超3億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)累(lei)計(ji)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規模(mo)(mo)(mo)將(jiang)(jiang)首次(ci)超過(guo)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規模(mo)(mo)(mo)。在新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)持續快速發展的(de)帶動下，預計(ji)2024年(nian)全(quan)國新(xin)增發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)將(jiang)(jiang)再次(ci)突破(po)3億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，新(xin)增規模(mo)(mo)(mo)與2023年(nian)基本相(xiang)當。2024年(nian)底，全(quan)國發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量預計(ji)達(da)到32.5億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，同比增長12%左(zuo)右。火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)14.6億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，其中煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)12億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右，占總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)比重(zhong)降至(zhi)(zhi)37%。非化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)合計(ji)18.6億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，占總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)的(de)比重(zhong)上升至(zhi)(zhi)57%左(zuo)右；其中，并(bing)(bing)網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)5.3億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)、并(bing)(bing)網(wang)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)7.8億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，并(bing)(bing)網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)合計(ji)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規模(mo)(mo)(mo)將(jiang)(jiang)超過(guo)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)，占總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)比重(zhong)上升至(zhi)(zhi)40%左(zuo)右，部(bu)分地區(qu)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)消納壓力(li)凸顯。

　　(三)電(dian)力(li)供需形勢預(yu)測

　　預(yu)計2024年迎(ying)峰(feng)(feng)度夏(xia)和(he)迎(ying)峰(feng)(feng)度冬期間全國電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)形(xing)勢總體緊(jin)平衡(heng)。電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應和(he)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求，以(yi)及氣候的(de)不(bu)確定性(xing)等多(duo)方面因素交織疊加，給(gei)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)形(xing)勢帶來不(bu)確定性(xing)。綜合考(kao)慮(lv)電(dian)力(li)消費需(xu)(xu)(xu)求增長、電(dian)源投產等情況，預(yu)計2024年全國電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)形(xing)勢總體緊(jin)平衡(heng)。迎(ying)峰(feng)(feng)度夏(xia)和(he)迎(ying)峰(feng)(feng)度冬期間，在充分考(kao)慮(lv)跨(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)區(qu)(qu)電(dian)力(li)互濟的(de)前提下，華北(bei)、華東(dong)、華中(zhong)(zhong)、西南、南方等區(qu)(qu)域中(zhong)(zhong)有部分省(sheng)級電(dian)網(wang)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應偏緊(jin)，部分時段(duan)需(xu)(xu)(xu)要(yao)實(shi)施(shi)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求側(ce)響應等措施(shi)。

　　三、有關建議

　　2024年，我國宏觀經濟及電(dian)(dian)力消費保(bao)持平穩增長，電(dian)(dian)力保(bao)供(gong)壓力上升。為切實做好今(jin)春及后續電(dian)(dian)力保(bao)供(gong)工作，全(quan)力保(bao)障大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)安全(quan)穩定，守好民生用電(dian)(dian)底線，推(tui)動經濟社會高質量發展，結(jie)合(he)電(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需形勢(shi)和行業發展趨勢(shi)，提出以下幾點建議(yi)：

　　(一(yi))扎實做(zuo)好電力安全(quan)供(gong)應工作(zuo)

　　一(yi)是做好一(yi)次能源(yuan)(yuan)跟(gen)蹤監(jian)(jian)測(ce)、負(fu)荷預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)和災(zai)害(hai)應(ying)急機(ji)制(zhi)建(jian)設。加強(qiang)來(lai)水、風、光跟(gen)蹤監(jian)(jian)測(ce),提升預(yu)(yu)報準(zhun)確性(xing)；加強(qiang)煤炭(tan)、油氣(qi)(qi)等能源(yuan)(yuan)供耗存監(jian)(jian)測(ce)；滾動開展用(yong)電(dian)(dian)負(fu)荷預(yu)(yu)測(ce)及預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)。建(jian)立健全(quan)電(dian)(dian)力氣(qi)(qi)象災(zai)害(hai)監(jian)(jian)測(ce)系統，完善微氣(qi)(qi)象、覆(fu)冰等在(zai)線(xian)監(jian)(jian)測(ce)裝(zhuang)置(zhi)部署(shu)，加強(qiang)極端天氣(qi)(qi)對(dui)電(dian)(dian)網影響(xiang)災(zai)害(hai)研判預(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)。進一(yi)步強(qiang)化民(min)生(sheng)保(bao)(bao)供應(ying)急機(ji)制(zhi)，提升災(zai)害(hai)應(ying)急處(chu)置(zhi)能力。加大重點地區應(ying)急裝(zhuang)備配置(zhi)力度，確保(bao)(bao)系統安全(quan)運行(xing)，提升極端條件(jian)下民(min)生(sheng)保(bao)(bao)障供電(dian)(dian)能力。

　　二是統籌(chou)做好源(yuan)(yuan)網規(gui)劃建(jian)設(she)(she)。分析(xi)電力(li)送受端不(bu)同(tong)地(di)區的網源(yuan)(yuan)投資合理(li)比例，統籌(chou)推進電網電源(yuan)(yuan)建(jian)設(she)(she)，避免由于網源(yuan)(yuan)建(jian)設(she)(she)不(bu)協同(tong)引(yin)起大(da)規(gui)模棄能。補強電網抵御自然災害的薄弱環節(jie)，提升電網設(she)(she)備防災能力(li)。結合新能源(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)充(chong)電樁建(jian)設(she)(she)，開展(zhan)城市配電網擴容和改造升級(ji)，大(da)力(li)推廣智能有序(xu)充(chong)電設(she)(she)施建(jian)設(she)(she)和改造。加快(kuai)農村(cun)電網鞏固(gu)提升工程(cheng)，支撐農村(cun)可再生能源(yuan)(yuan)開發。

　　三(san)是提升電源(yuan)供應能力。做(zuo)好一次燃料供應保(bao)(bao)障，繼(ji)續執行煤(mei)炭(tan)保(bao)(bao)供政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)，加大煤(mei)炭(tan)先(xian)進產能釋放力度，鞏固電力保(bao)(bao)供基礎；保(bao)(bao)持(chi)進口煤(mei)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)穩(wen)定(ding)，給(gei)予用煤(mei)企業平穩(wen)長久的(de)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)預期；引導電煤(mei)價格穩(wen)定(ding)在合(he)理區間。推動納入規(gui)劃(hua)的(de)電源(yuan)按時投產，同時做(zuo)好并網服務，確保(bao)(bao)常規(gui)電源(yuan)應并盡并，強化機組(zu)運(yun)(yun)行維護，嚴格非(fei)計(ji)劃(hua)停運(yun)(yun)和出力受阻管理，挖(wa)掘機組(zu)頂峰潛力。

　　四(si)是挖掘(jue)輸電(dian)(dian)通(tong)道能(neng)力(li)(li)。加強跨省跨區電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)余缺互(hu)濟，優化(hua)跨省區電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)調配(pei)機制，做(zuo)好中長(chang)期、現貨、應急調度的(de)銜接。用(yong)足用(yong)好跨省跨區輸電(dian)(dian)通(tong)道，做(zuo)到(dao)資源互(hu)補(bu)、時空互(hu)濟、市場互(hu)惠。充分發揮配(pei)套(tao)電(dian)(dian)源的(de)調節能(neng)力(li)(li)，允許(xu)配(pei)套(tao)電(dian)(dian)源富余能(neng)力(li)(li)在更(geng)大(da)范圍內進行市場化(hua)配(pei)置。

　　五是拓(tuo)寬需求側響應覆(fu)蓋范(fan)圍。按(an)照(zhao)“誰(shui)承擔(dan)誰(shui)受益”的(de)原(yuan)則，拓(tuo)寬資金渠道(dao)，優化調整市場分擔(dan)費用和(he)運行費用等相關政策措施(shi)，形成(cheng)合理的(de)需求響應市場化補償機制。進一步(bu)完善電價(jia)體(ti)系，細(xi)化峰(feng)期、谷期電價(jia)時(shi)(shi)段，增加較小時(shi)(shi)間尺度(du)的(de)分時(shi)(shi)電價(jia)，引導(dao)和(he)激(ji)發用戶錯峰(feng)用電的(de)積極性(xing)。適當降低負荷聚(ju)合商的(de)準入門檻。

　　(二)加(jia)快建立健全市場化電價體系

　　一(yi)是落(luo)實好煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)“兩部制”電(dian)(dian)價政策。建議各省(sheng)份盡快出臺(tai)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)容(rong)量電(dian)(dian)價實施(shi)細則，穩(wen)定(ding)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)企(qi)業固定(ding)成本(ben)(ben)回(hui)收(shou)預期，推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)機組(zu)進行必要(yao)的(de)投資(zi)和改造。加強(qiang)(qiang)對各地落(luo)實煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)價政策監管，及時糾正以降價為目(mu)的(de)專場交(jiao)易(yi)，避(bi)免不合(he)理(li)干(gan)預。建立(li)健全跨(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)區(qu)(qu)容(rong)量電(dian)(dian)價分攤機制，推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)跨(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)區(qu)(qu)中長期交(jiao)易(yi)的(de)簽約履約，保障電(dian)(dian)力供應基本(ben)(ben)盤。加強(qiang)(qiang)國家層面對熱價調整的(de)指導，考慮優化供熱機組(zu)容(rong)量成本(ben)(ben)回(hui)收(shou)機制，研究熱工況下供熱機組(zu)靈活性(xing)調節能力與煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)容(rong)量電(dian)(dian)價機制的(de)合(he)理(li)銜接。研究并推(tui)動(dong)(dong)(dong)新型儲能容(rong)量電(dian)(dian)價政策盡快出臺(tai)。

　　二是加(jia)快完善(shan)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)參(can)與市(shi)場(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)價機制(zhi)。增加(jia)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)調(diao)整合同(tong)的機會，縮短交(jiao)易周(zhou)期，提(ti)高(gao)交(jiao)易頻率。允許(xu)不同(tong)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)品(pin)種(zhong)之間自由(you)轉(zhuan)讓市(shi)場(chang)(chang)合同(tong)，增加(jia)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)合同(tong)的流通性(xing)。新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)優先發(fa)電(dian)(dian)計劃應轉(zhuan)為政(zheng)府授權合約(yue)機制(zhi)，保(bao)障新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)企業(ye)合理收益(yi)。各地(di)結合實際情況，開展用(yong)戶峰(feng)谷電(dian)(dian)價的時段調(diao)整，挖掘(jue)午間用(yong)電(dian)(dian)需求。

　　三是(shi)加快(kuai)推進(jin)(jin)綠(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)色電力市場(chang)建設。加快(kuai)推進(jin)(jin)綠(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)證(zheng)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)方法及實(shi)施細則出臺，豐富綠(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)證(zheng)應(ying)用場(chang)景(jing)。逐步(bu)將分布式發電、生物質發電等形式的(de)可再生能源納入綠(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)電供應(ying)體(ti)系，進(jin)(jin)一步(bu)擴大(da)綠(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)電供應(ying)規(gui)模。加快(kuai)培育綠(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)電消費(fei)市場(chang)，體(ti)現(xian)新能源綠(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)色環境價值，提升新能源參與市場(chang)的(de)經濟性。完善綠(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)證(zheng)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)機(ji)制，暢(chang)通購買(mai)綠(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)電和綠(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)證(zheng)的(de)渠(qu)道，落(luo)實(shi)全社會(hui)共同推動能源轉(zhuan)型(xing)的(de)責任。

　　(三)加(jia)快推(tui)動新型電力系統建設

　　一是(shi)加強新(xin)型電力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)頂層設計(ji)。堅持系統(tong)(tong)(tong)觀念，加強對新(xin)型電力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)的源網荷(he)儲統(tong)(tong)(tong)籌規劃(hua)(hua)和建設。統(tong)(tong)(tong)籌優化(hua)電力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)發展規劃(hua)(hua)，加強電力規劃(hua)(hua)與(yu)其他專項規劃(hua)(hua)的指導與(yu)銜(xian)接(jie)作用。完善(shan)構建新(xin)型電力系統(tong)(tong)(tong)的相關配套政策，從市(shi)場機制建設、技術(shu)創新(xin)、示范推廣等多方面統(tong)(tong)(tong)籌推進。

　　二是統籌推(tui)進新能(neng)源(yuan)大(da)基(ji)地(di)(di)(di)(di)建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)。強(qiang)化新能(neng)源(yuan)基(ji)地(di)(di)(di)(di)、支撐(cheng)性電源(yuan)和輸送通(tong)道(dao)同步(bu)規劃(hua)設(she)計和同步(bu)運行，保障大(da)基(ji)地(di)(di)(di)(di)按(an)期投產，積極推(tui)動(dong)綠(lv)色清潔電力消納。加(jia)強(qiang)指(zhi)導地(di)(di)(di)(di)方政府解(jie)決(jue)非技術成本不斷(duan)攀升問題(ti)，加(jia)大(da)對土地(di)(di)(di)(di)價格(ge)、配套(tao)產業(ye)等限(xian)制(zhi)性政策的監督(du)，保障大(da)基(ji)地(di)(di)(di)(di)開發企業(ye)合理權益和收益。在大(da)基(ji)地(di)(di)(di)(di)建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)用(yong)地(di)(di)(di)(di)、用(yong)林、用(yong)草、用(yong)水等手續辦(ban)理上開設(she)綠(lv)色通(tong)道(dao)，以滿(man)足大(da)基(ji)地(di)(di)(di)(di)的建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)進度要求。綜合考慮各地(di)(di)(di)(di)資源(yuan)稟賦、調節(jie)能(neng)力、電網建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)等因素制(zhi)定合理的差異(yi)化的新能(neng)源(yuan)利用(yong)率目標。

　　三是(shi)統(tong)(tong)籌提(ti)升電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)調節能(neng)(neng)(neng)力。加大政策支持力度，持續推(tui)(tui)(tui)進煤電(dian)(dian)“三改(gai)(gai)聯動(dong)”及(ji)支撐性調節性煤電(dian)(dian)的建設，提(ti)升電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)(tong)應(ying)急(ji)保障和調峰能(neng)(neng)(neng)力。完善峰谷電(dian)(dian)價(jia)，積極(ji)推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)完善新(xin)型(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)參與市場(chang)機(ji)制(zhi)，發(fa)揮儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)調節作(zuo)用。加快(kuai)抽(chou)水(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)建設及(ji)改(gai)(gai)造，推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)已開工的項目盡快(kuai)投產運行，盡早(zao)發(fa)揮作(zuo)用；因地制(zhi)宜建設中小型(xing)抽(chou)水(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)。加快(kuai)確立(li)抽(chou)水(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)獨立(li)市場(chang)主體(ti)地位(wei)，推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)平(ping)等參與電(dian)(dian)力中長期市場(chang)、現貨市場(chang)及(ji)輔(fu)助服務市場(chang)交易。發(fa)揮流(liu)域水(shui)電(dian)(dian)集群效益，實(shi)現水(shui)電(dian)(dian)與新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源多能(neng)(neng)(neng)互(hu)補運行。推(tui)(tui)(tui)進多元化儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)技術研發(fa)與應(ying)用，優(you)化儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)布局場(chang)景，推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)獨立(li)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)揮調節作(zuo)用。

　　四是推(tui)動電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)領域科技(ji)(ji)創(chuang)新(xin)。加強(qiang)新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統(tong)基(ji)礎理論研(yan)究(jiu)，推(tui)動能源電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)研(yan)發(fa)與應(ying)用向數字化、智(zhi)能化和綠色化轉(zhuan)型。深入(ru)研(yan)究(jiu)適應(ying)大(da)規模高(gao)比例(li)新(xin)能源友好(hao)并網的先進電(dian)(dian)網和儲(chu)能等新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統(tong)支撐技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)，開(kai)展高(gao)比例(li)新(xin)能源和高(gao)比例(li)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)子(zi)裝(zhuang)備接入(ru)電(dian)(dian)網穩定運行(xing)控制技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)研(yan)究(jiu)。鼓勵(li)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)企業(ye)圍繞技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)創(chuang)新(xin)鏈開(kai)展強(qiang)強(qiang)聯合(he)和產學研(yan)深度協作，集(ji)中突(tu)破關(guan)鍵核心技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)。加大(da)新(xin)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)應(ying)用示(shi)范的支持力(li)(li)度，加快新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統(tong)、儲(chu)能、氫能、CCUS等標準體系研(yan)究(jiu)，發(fa)揮標準引領作用。

　　注釋：

　　1.各項(xiang)統計(ji)數據均未包(bao)括香港特(te)別行政(zheng)(zheng)區、澳門(men)特(te)別行政(zheng)(zheng)區和臺灣省。部分數據因四舍五入的原(yuan)因，存在總計(ji)與(yu)分項(xiang)合計(ji)不(bu)等(deng)的情況。

　　2.兩年(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)速是以2021年(nian)(nian)同期值為(wei)基數，采用幾何平(ping)均(jun)方法(fa)計(ji)算。

　　3.規模以上電廠發電量(liang)統計(ji)范圍為年主營業(ye)務收入2000萬元及以上的電廠發電量(liang)，數(shu)據來源(yuan)于國家統計(ji)局。

　　4.四大高載能行業包括(kuo)：化學原料和(he)化學制品制造業、非(fei)金(jin)屬礦物制品業、黑(hei)色(se)金(jin)屬冶(ye)煉(lian)和(he)壓延(yan)加工業、有(you)色(se)金(jin)屬冶(ye)煉(lian)和(he)壓延(yan)加工業4個行業。

　　5.高(gao)技術(shu)及(ji)裝備(bei)(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)包括：醫藥制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、金屬制(zhi)品業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、通用(yong)設備(bei)(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、專(zhuan)用(yong)設備(bei)(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、汽車制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、鐵(tie)路/船(chuan)舶/航空航天和(he)其(qi)他運(yun)輸設備(bei)(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、電氣機(ji)械和(he)器材制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、計算機(ji)/通信和(he)其(qi)他電子設備(bei)(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、儀器儀表制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)9個(ge)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。

　　6.消費(fei)品(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)包括(kuo)：農(nong)副(fu)食品(pin)加(jia)(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、食品(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、酒/飲料及(ji)精制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)茶制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、煙草制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、紡(fang)織(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、紡(fang)織(zhi)服裝/服飾業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、皮革/毛(mao)皮/羽毛(mao)及(ji)其制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)和(he)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)鞋(xie)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、木材加(jia)(jia)工(gong)和(he)木/竹(zhu)/藤/棕/草制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、家具制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、造(zao)(zao)紙(zhi)和(he)紙(zhi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、印(yin)刷和(he)記(ji)錄媒介復制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、文(wen)教/工(gong)美/體育(yu)和(he)娛樂(le)用(yong)品(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)12個行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。

　　7.其他(ta)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)為制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用電分類(lei)的(de)31個行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中，除(chu)四大(da)高載能行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、高技術(shu)及裝備制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、消(xiao)費品(pin)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)之外的(de)其他(ta)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，包(bao)括(kuo)：石油/煤炭及其他(ta)燃料加(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、化(hua)學纖維制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、橡膠和塑料制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、其他(ta)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、廢棄(qi)資源(yuan)綜合利用業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、金(jin)屬制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)/機械和設(she)備修理業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)6個行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。

　　8.東(dong)部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)包(bao)括(kuo)北京、天(tian)津、河北、上(shang)海(hai)(hai)、江蘇、浙江、福建、山(shan)東(dong)、廣東(dong)、海(hai)(hai)南10個(ge)省(sheng)(市)；中部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)包(bao)括(kuo)山(shan)西(xi)(xi)、安徽、江西(xi)(xi)、河南、湖(hu)北、湖(hu)南6個(ge)省(sheng)；西(xi)(xi)部(bu)地(di)區(qu)(qu)包(bao)括(kuo)內蒙(meng)古、廣西(xi)(xi)、重慶、四川、貴州、云南、西(xi)(xi)藏、陜西(xi)(xi)、甘肅(su)、青海(hai)(hai)、寧夏、新疆12個(ge)省(sheng)(市、自(zi)治區(qu)(qu))；東(dong)北地(di)區(qu)(qu)包(bao)括(kuo)遼寧、吉林、黑龍江3個(ge)省(sheng)。

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